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geneticist

0 bejegyzést írt és 5 hozzászólása volt az általa látogatott blogokban.

2010.06.12. óta tag.
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Örülünk, Vincent? 2016 vs. 2020 Biden, Clinton, Trump 2020.10.29 12:29:24
         Michigan-ben az utolsó tíz poll átlaga 2016-ban 3.8 százalékos Clinton előny volt, tegnap átlagban 8 százalékos Biden előnye. 2016-ban 47.57-47.26-ra nyert Trump Clinton ellen.         Wisconsinban az utolsó tíz poll átlaga 2016-ban 6 százalékos Clinton előny volt, tegnap átlagban 10…..
geneticist 2020.10.30 16:58:29
George Mcleod:
I’ve been analysing the Presidential election numbers to generate a prediction. In 2016 I got it right on projecting a Trump win, and I hope I’m wrong this time around too.
The polls (including Fox) show Biden in a solid lead. But every time I run my own numbers, I come up with the opposite conclusion – that Trump will win.
I was puzzled about this and suspected it was because Trump supporters don’t want to admit their vote on the phone when contacted by pollsters. But looking at the CNN and Fox polling methodology I suspect it’s because they select respondents based on a randomised sampling.
The actual voter turnout however is far from random and shows concentrations in demographic groups. For example, in Wisconsin, 83% of the population is white, but 90% of total voters are white... A randomized sampling implies equal representation at the ballot boxes in a reality where election results hinge mostly on one demographic.
In a nutshell - the most accurate way to gauge the final outcome in the Wisconsin example would be to determine the level of support in the white demographic since they are both the largest population segment and the highest voter turnout.
In Wisconsin’s case - over 60% of the white population supports Trump. Sixty-percent of 90% is just around half. If that is coupled with the Vietnamese vote, which is over 80% Trump, it scrapes Trump by into winning the state.
geneticist 2020.10.30 17:01:36
geneticist 2020.10.31 08:56:42
One thing seems clear: the white vote in these swing states has stayed more-or-less in Trump's camp. I can't see any evidence that contradicts that. There are articles that focus on niche segments in the white vote, such as college-educated women etc, pointing out that they are swaying towards Biden. But none of this matters -- the only thing that matters is the total, aggregate vote, and all of what I am seeing points to the whites going about between 50 and 70% in favour of Trump in the swings ... That is critical because when you have a place like Minnesota where over 80% of the pop is white, you need to obtain a 10-fold increase in black voter turnout to cancel out about 1% of the white vote. That's of course assuming that every single black person votes for Biden. I am rounding my numbers, but that is essentially the case. ...

South Carolina
63% of the population is white. 75% of that segment supports Trump.
This adds up to 47% of the aggregate vote going for Trump. At this point, it puts Trump just 4% from winning the state. Ie -- if every single non-white person in SC voted against Trump, he would be just 3% plus 1 vote shy of victory.
- 26% of the population is African American
- 6% Latino
If we assume that 80% African Americans support Biden and that 100% actually vote (which is impossible), this goes to 6% of African Americans voting for Trump; translating to about 1.5% of the aggregate vote. For Latinos, it’s 40% for Trump. 40% of 6% is about 2.5% of the total vote. Then the Vietnamese vote gives an additional 1%. All this translates to an additional 8-10% for Trump, adding up to 57% total.

I think the question is: has the vote in the dominant demographic in swing states changed? The answer to that question as far as i can see is: no.
Örülünk, Vincent? Az antiszemita jelölt esete 2020.10.08 22:51:52
      Mintha kínos lenne Bíró László képviselőjelölt úrról írni. Igen, ő az egyesített ellenzék jelöltje Tiszaújvárosban és hát szegény éppen antiszemita. Lehetne ő antikvitás, akkor a kvitások panaszkodnának, vagy antilop és akkor a Mészáros Lőrinc, de épp antiszemita ez a derék ember, úgyhogy…..
geneticist 2020.10.10 23:59:19
Történelem mindenkinek Vélemény: Szőcs Géza és a "finnugrizmus" kalandjai 2010.06.11 18:00:00
Ez egy vitaposzt lesz - talán először a blog történetében. Sajnálatos módon válság van, nekünk meg termelni kell a GDP-t, és mint azt megfigyelhettétek, időnként kimarad egy - egy frissülés. Igyekszünk, hogy ez ne így legyen. Mi a f.. van? Ma egy hajmeresztő interjút olvastam…..
geneticist 2010.06.12 15:23:34
felhasználási feltételek adatvédelmi tájékoztató segítség jogi problémák dsa impresszum médiaajánlat süti beállítások módosítása